Opportunities for Canada in a Trade War

The threat (and imposition) of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports have caused existential angst in our country. Media reports of the situation are constant and anxious. Since the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner (and vice-versa), the fears are warranted. However, our anxieties and insecurities from this situation have surprised me. Canada is one of the world’s wealthiest nations in finances and natural resources. We matter. Why don’t we act like it? The world is paying attention.

Changing mindsets

Canada’s corporate class has been complacent in relying on the U.S. for business instead of taking better advantage of trade deals. Yes, doing business with the U.S. is easier because it’s next door. However, our reliance is evident in a recent Royal Bank of Canada report on the state of Canada’s agri-food exports with 60% going to the U.S. This is a greater reliance than peer countries. The Netherlands exported 2.3 times more processed food and beverages in 2016, according to a Senate of Canada committee report from 2019. Canada is 243 times larger in size than The Netherlands. That report attributed Dutch success to “a customer-centric approach and a deep-rooted culture of innovation.” We can take inspiration from the Dutch.

Instead of complaining about how long it will take to build relationships in new markets, we should roll up our sleeves and get on with it. There are 11 free trade deals outside of the Canada-United States – Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) that Canada could be better taking advantage of. Let’s not forget the inter-provincial barriers to trade and labour mobility that exist in Canada. Many Canadian companies have staff with strong ties to these nations and across Canada. We need to get on with building these trade relationships. Changing mindsets is tough, but not impossible. Just ask Carol Dweck, author of Mindset.

Diversity is our strength

Many of our workplaces have colleagues from abroad. They did not lose those connections to their home countries when they immigrated. Some studied at our post-secondary institutions, which rank highly in global rankings. Many continue to cultivate their relationships back home through digital communications and regular trips. Business leaders can genuinely partner with these employees and work with them to develop new markets for Canadian goods. For instance, Canada had over 1.8 million people of Indian origin in 2021. (1) (2) Cultivating these relationships can benefit two-way trade.

We have an under-appreciated asset in English Canada: French as an official language. This opens up access to the Francophonie, a group of 56 members nations spanning five continents. There are 321 million French-language speakers globally as of 2022. At a time when others are turning away from diversity, now is a time to lean in our strength. A recent RBC report highlights the potential for Canada to export agri-food products to non-U.S. markets. It states that parts of Africa are expected to see large GDP expansions, which would lead to greater demand for agri-food exports. It is a region with over 118 million French-language speakers. We are already among the top food exporters in the world. Canada would be acting from a position of strength. Let’s not forget this.

Our agri-food potential

Diversifying away from the U.S. is an opportunity to improve soil health since this could be a differentiator for EU customers who tend to have higher standards regarding the use of synthetic fertilizers used to grow crops. It can mean implementing rotational grazing for beef farmers and improving meat quality for export to the EU. The trading bloc does not allow the use of growth hormones and antibiotic usage in beef production.

We also need to elevate our homegrown initiatives. For instance, the Experimental Acres Pilot should receive renewed funding and be replicated across Canada. This was a three-year pilot in the Ontario counties of Grey, Dufferin and Wellington. Farmers received small grants to trial regenerative agriculture practices like cover cropping and rotational grazing. It was funded by the federal government through the Our Food Future circular economy project between 2020 and 2023. We need to expand this Canadian initiative because it helps small growers and it supports the diversification farm production methods in municipalities where this sector matters. If Experimental Acres gets another round of funding, it should prioritize community-building among farmers to ensure that the practices stick for the long-term.

Let’s remember that Canada has a lot to offer. The U.S. tariff threat has brought us together. We have ties all over the world that we can lean into. This is as an opportunity to overcome our weaknesses through growth, truly embrace our diversity and think big about what’s in our backyards. We have the talent in this country to make it happen. Let’s get on with the task. The world is watching.

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I am the lead author of Advancing Regenerative Agriculture in Canada: Barriers, Enablers and Recommendations in January 2024 at the Ivey Business School Centre for Building Sustainable Value.

References

(1) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810035601

(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Canadians#cite_ref-notepopulation2021_2-0

Ashton, Lisa. 2025. “Food First: How Agriculture Can Lead a New Era for Canadian Exports.” Royal Bank of Canada. February 25, 2025. https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/food-first-how-agriculture-can-lead-a-new-era-for-canadian-exports/.

CBC News. 2019. “Canada-EU Beef Trade Deal Not Working as Well as Hoped.” October 7, 2019. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ceta-beef-export-canada-europe-not-what-was-expected-1.5312594.

Dweck, Carol. 2016. Mindset: The New Psychology of Success: How We Can Learn to Fulfill Our Potential: Parenting, Business, School, Relationships. Updated edition. New York: Random House Publishing Group.

European Union. 2023. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2660. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2023/2660/oj.

Government of Canada. 2025a. “Canada-United States Relations.” March 14, 2025. https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/us-eu/relations.aspx?lang=eng.

———. 2025b. “Trade and Investment Agreements.” March 19, 2025. https://international.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/services/trade/agreements-negotiations/investment-agreements#dataset-filter1.

Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie autour du monde. 2022. “Combien de Francophones Dans Le Monde?” March 2022. https://observatoire.francophonie.org/qui-parle-francais-dans-le-monde/.

———. 2024. “Organisation Internationale de La Francophonie Autour Du Monde.” November 2024. https://www.francophonie.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/carte_OIF_2024_800X600.pdf.

The Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. 2019. “Made in Canada: Growing Canada’s Value-Added Food Sector.” Senate of Canada. https://sencanada.ca/content/sen/committee/421/AGFO/Reports/AGFO_SS-5_Report_Final_e.pdf.

Times Higher Education. 2025. “World University Rankings 2025.” 2025. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/latest/world-ranking#!/length/25/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/scores.

Wellington County. 2024. “Experimental Acres.” 2024. https://www.wellington.ca/business-development/environment-agriculture/experimental-acres.

———. 2025. “Our Food Future Project Legacy Page.” 2025. https://www.wellington.ca/business-development/environment-agriculture/circular-economy/our-food-future-project-legacy-page.

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